抚顺地区气温分布与乡镇温度预报订正方法研究

Research of Temperature Distribution in Fushun Area and Temperature Forecast Correction Method of Villages and Towns

未来24 h预报是每个气象台的日常工作内容,随着人们对天气预报的关注日益增加,对乡镇温度预报准确率提出了更高的要求。本文结合抚顺地区87个自动气象观测站的数据及位置分布,选取一个数据最为完整的观测站作为代表站,绘制全市各观测站与本站的逐月温差图,研究全市气温分布规律,在此基础上以新宾县15个乡镇为例提出了等差值乡镇温度预报订正方法并对结果进行检验。结果表明:抚顺地区全年温度分布趋势具有明显的季节性变化;用等差值乡镇温度预报订正方法对新宾县15个乡镇进行温度预报,发现温度准确率大部分在80%以上。

Forecast of the next 24 hours is the daily work content of each meteorological station. As people pay more attention to the weather forecast,the higher temperature forecast accuracy of villages and towns are required. In connection with the distribution of the data and the location of 87 automatic weather stations in Fushun City,one observation station with most complete data was selected as a representative station,monthly temperature difference chart was drawn,and the temperature distribution of the city was studied. On this basis,taking 15 towns in Xinbin County for example,a methodology of temperature forecast correction method was proposed to test the results. The results showed that： Annual temperature distribution trend of Fushun area has obvious seasonal variation;Using the methodology to correct the values of the temperature forecast of 15 towns in Xinbin County,the accuracy of the temperature mostly are above 80%.