基于可靠性理论的城市应急管理评价研究

Study on urban emergency management evaluation based on reliability theory

鉴于目前城市应急管理评价研究大都没有从系统可靠性的视角进行分析,提出一种基于可靠性理论的城市应急管理评价模式。从系统可靠性的基本观点出发,解析城市应急管理体系的功能构成,在此基础上,结合故障树法构建城市应急管理系统可靠性模型,并运用可靠性分配理论,实现了系统内各单元可靠度的量化再分配。以某市为例,详述该市应急管理可靠性评价及可靠度再分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论能够成功应用到城市应急管理评价之中,并能在给定的目标值条件下实现系统内各单元的可靠度优化。

Due to most of the present research on urban emergency management evaluation are lacking of the analysis from the perspective of system reliability, a model of urban emergency management evaluation based on reliability theory was put forward. The functional structure of urban emergency management system was resolved based on the basic viewpoints of system reliability. The reliability model of urban emergency management system was established combining with fault tree analysis. The quantification redistribution on reliability of each unit of the system was achieved by adopting the reliability distribution theory. Taking a certain city as example, the calculation processes of reliability evaluation and reliability redistribution on emergency management were expatiated. It showed that reliability theory can be successfully applied to the urban emergency management evaluation, and can achieve the reliability optimization of each unit in the system under the condition of given target value.