青海省人口规模预测及人口发展对策研究

Study on Predication of Population Scale and Countermeasures of Population Development in Qinghai Province

人口是社会的基础要素,人口规模及发展趋势预测对区域城市规划的制定和人口政策的调整具有重要的参考意义。综合运用灰色、阻滞增长、人口自然增长、回归分析四种数学模型对青海省2013—2030年人口规模及发展趋势进行预测,结果表明:未来青海省总人口将继续处于稳定增长状态,年平均人口增长率8.77‰,2020年青海省年末常住人口将达到621.11万人,2030年将达到676.25万人。针对青海省的省情和人口发展形势提出相应对策和建议。

Population was the basic element of society. The predication of population scale and its trend of development had important reference value for regional urban planning and the adjustment of population policy. This paper forecasted the population scale and its trend of development of Qinghai Province between 2013 and 2030 by comprehensively using such four mathematical models as gray, block growth, the natural population growth and regression analysis. It was found that the total population of Qinghai Province would continue to be in a state of steady growth with the an- nual average population growth rate up to 8.77%~. The resident population of Qinghai Province would increase to 6211100 by 2020 and to 6762500 by 2030. In the end, the authors put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the present situation in Qinghai Province and its trend of population development.