农村劳动力转移与山西现代农业驱动模式研究

Rural Labor Transfer and Development Drive of Modern Agriculture in Shanxi Province

运用协整回归和误差修正模型,以山西省为例,实证分析农村劳动力转移对现代农业的影响。结果表明,1996~2011年,农村劳动生产率、财政支农资金比例和城镇化水平的对数与农村转移劳动力比例之间存在协整关系,且误差修正机制存在;β系数进一步表明农村转移劳动力对农业现代化的影响作用最大,并且前者是后者的Granger因。证实了现代农业驱动处于人口转移驱动型阶段,尚未进入城镇化驱动阶段。据此提出建议：继续积极鼓励和引导农村劳动力有序、健康转移;提高财政支农比例,提升财政支农资金运用效率;对城镇化模式进行科学动态调整,纠正城镇化偏差。

The paper,taking Shanxi province for example,gives an empirical analysis on the influence of the rural labor transfer on modern agriculture with the cointegration regression and error correction model.The results show that there is a cointegration relationship and error correction mechanism among the logarithm of productivity of agriculture,the logarithm proportion of agricultural financial subsidy,the logarithm of urbanization and the level of proportion of rural labor transfer.Then Beta coefficients indicate that the largest impact on modern agriculture comes from the rural labor transfer,and the latter is Granger cause to the former.The paper confirms that the drive of modern agriculture is labor transfer rather than the urbanization.Accordingly,we should continue to encourage and guide the orderly and healthy rural labor transfer and improve the proportion and efficiency of agricultural financial fund,as well as give the urbanization mode a scientific and dynamic adjustment to correct its deviation.