人民币汇率预期驱动香港地区离岸人民币金融中心假说成立吗?

Is Hypothesis on RMB Exchange Rate Expectation Motivating Hong Kong RMB Offshore Centre Established?

人民币汇率预期是影响香港地区离岸人民币金融中心的重要因素。本文在文献综述的基础上，提出了“人民币汇率预期驱动香港地区离岸人民币金融中心”假说。使用Granger因果关系检验方法并把样本划分为2个阶段对这一假说进行检验。研究结论表明：（1）第一阶段，在1—3个月的滞后期内人民币汇率预期是导致香港地区人民币存款变化的格兰杰原因，假说成立。（2）第二阶段，没有发现支持假说成立的证据。研究结论为香港地区离岸人民币金融市场的进一步发展提供了参考。

The RMB exchange rate expectation is one of the key factors which affects the development of Hong Kong RMB offshore centre.After giving a detailed review on the works in this field,a hypothesis on RMB exchange rate expectation motivating Hong Kong RMB offshore centre is put forward.By using of Granger causality test with sample being divided into two periods,those relations are examined in the following empirical research.Conclusions are as follows:(1) In the first phase,RMB exchange rate expectation is Granger cause to the flow of Hong Kong RMB deposits with 1 ~ 3 months time lag.The hypothesis is established.(2) In the second phase,no evidence is found to support the hypothesis.The conclusions provide references for the further development of Hong Kong RMB offshore centre.