辽宁省某市奶牛布病感染状况及群间传播风险因素调查

Investigation of Prevalence and Risk Factors of Brucellosis in Dairy Cows in X City of Liaoning Province

为了解辽宁省某市的奶牛布鲁氏菌病(简称奶牛布病)流行现状及该市奶牛布病群间传播风险因素,开展本研究。对该市辖区内所有奶牛进行布鲁氏菌病的普查,获知该市奶牛布病的表观个体血清流行率和表观群血清流行率;采用问卷调查方式进一步开展病例-对照研究,初步筛选出14项该市奶牛布病群间传播可能风险因素,经相关性检验结合生物学知识,选取了5个变量进入多因素分析,最终通过非条件logistic回归方法初步建立了该市奶牛布病群间传播风险因素回归模型,并建立ROC曲线计算了模型的预测概率。研究结果显示,该市奶牛个体流行率为0.99%,群流行率12.44%。非条件logistic回归分析结果显示,该市奶牛布病群间传播的风险因素包括:"无专用购销车辆"(OR=3.57,95%CI:1.04-12.5,p=0.04),"进圈时不穿专用工作服和胶靴"(OR=5.0,95%CI:0.97-25.00,p=0.06),"与犬混养"(OR=12.39,95%CI:0.97-157.56,p=0.05)。该结果表明与犬混养可能是该市奶牛布病群间传播重要的风险因素,而奶牛销售时自有购销专用车辆和场内生物安全措施的采取如进圈穿专用工作服可使奶牛布病在场群间传播的风险降低。针对回归模型建立的ROC曲线下面积为71.6%,表明此模型解释该市奶牛布病群间传播风险的能力为中等。

To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors of brucellosis in dairy cows in X city of Liaoning prov-ince,all the cows in X city were tested using both rose bengal plate test and tube agglutination test,and the risk fac-tors for Brucella infection on farms were identified through a case-control study. The results showed that the apparent individual sero-prevalence of brucellosis in cows in X city was 0.18%,while the apparent herd sero-prevalence of brucellosis was 10.16%. Three factors,including presence of dogs in the farm（OR=12.39,95%CI： 0.97-157.56,p=0.05）,no specialized vehicles（OR=3.57,95%CI： 1.04-12.5,p =0.04）and no work suits and boots during work-ing（OR=5.0,95%CI： 0.97-25.00,p =0.06）were identified as the risk factors for brucellosis transmission between farms in X city. It was suggested that brucellosis control measures should be designed according to the results of the in-vestigation in X city.