中国区域产业结构对地区经济增长的影响——基于28个省数据研究

The Influence of Regional Industrial Structure to the Growth of Local Economy:a Study Based on Data of 28 Provinces in China

通过选取我国28个省际区域1993-2012年的数据,运用面板VAR模型研究区域产业结构对经济增长作用的实证结果表明,区域各产业结构变动会对经济增长产生影响,其中第一产业对经济增长的影响已经较弱,第二产业目前对经济增长影响显著,但后劲不足,第三产业对经济增长的影响在不断增强。我国在今后的发展中,应加快第一产业的现代化进程;在第二产业中发展高新技术,促进产业升级;大力发展第三产业,促进各产业间的联动,同时应着重培养高技术人才,以促进区域产业结构调整和经济增长。

An empirical study is conducted to analyze the role of regional industrial structure for economic growth byusing data from 1993 to 2012 of 28 provincial regions and panel VAR. It is found that regional industrial structure change affects economic growth. The influ- ence of the primary industry has weakened. That of the secondary industry is remarkable now, but the stamina is not enough. That of the tertiary industry is increasing. In the future, China should accelerate the modernization progress of the primary industry, develop advanced technology in the secondary industry for promoting the industrial upgrade, and proactively develop the tertiary industry in facilitating the interaction of industries. In addition, attention should be paid to training highly skilled personnel, so as to promote regional industrial structure adjustment and economic growth.