国际产业转移背景下人民币对东亚国家货币影响力研究

Research of the Influence of RMB on East Asian Countries' Currency under the Background of International Industry Transfer

使用高频数据对东亚经济体货币汇率联动态势分阶段进行了考察,并在此基础上分析了2002年以来人民币汇率对东亚主要货币汇率的动态影响。研究表明,东亚经济体存在着非正式的汇率合作机制,金融危机使得美元对东亚的影响进一步弱化,而"汇改"使得人民币对东亚各国货币影响力进一步增强;相对而言,日元和欧元对东亚各国货币的影响力并不显著。产业转移以及中国和东亚国家货币互换的范围与规模的扩大是人民币地区影响力增强的重要因素。

This paper uses daily high frequency data to investigate dynamic phases of combined move of exchange rate for East Asian economies under the background of transition of exchange rate system;then,it analyzes the dynamic effect of RMB exchange rate on the exchange rate of major East Asian economies since 2002. The result shows that：there exists informal exchange rate cooperation mechanism in the East Asian economies. The influence of U. S. dollar has gradually weakened and the financial crisis has further relaxed the influence of U. S. dollar on the area. The ＂Yuan move＂has further enhanced the RMB influence on the East Asian currencies;In contrast,the influence of yen and the euro on the East Asian currencies is not significant. The transfer of the industry and the expanding scope and scale of currency swap between China and East Asian countries is an important factor to enhance the RMB’s regional influence.