基于物质流分析的大学校园投入产出研究

Study on Input-output in the PKU Campus Based on Material Flow Analysis

本文通过物质流分析方法,测度和解析北京大学校园物质输入和输出情况,以及支撑校园的资源和能源在时空的变化及消耗强度。在此基础上,分析校园需求强度,并筛选需求变化较大的输入项作为研究单元,深入研究影响该需求的驱动因子,探讨该输入项与科研产出间的定量或半定量关系。研究表明,北京大学校园系统的总输入量和输出量基本维持在35万吨和22万吨左右,输出占输入量的平均比值为63%;输入项中用电变化最为明显,且与人数、设备量和建筑面积呈多元线性关系。在生态文明成为国家意志的当今社会,随着建设世界一流大学的步伐不断加速,大学节能降耗的压力也将逐渐增加,在未来绿色校园建设过程中,用电需求应予更多关注。

Material flow analysis method is used to measure and analyze the material input and output and time-space variation of resources and energy consumption in the PKU campus. And then,base on demand intensity,the material input items which vary greatly are selected to study their driving factors,and discusses quantitative or semi-quantitative relationship between the input items and scientific research output. The result shows that there are about 350,000 tons of input and 220,000 tons of output of the campus and the proportion of output to input is 63%. Of all the factors which influence the input,electricity consumption is the most changable, it shows a multivariate linear relationship with population, equipment and building area. We built a multiple linear regression model to describe them,and to predict the electricity consumption in the future. Nowadays,construction of ecological civilization is being a state will in China,it is necessary to pay more attention to cut down electricity consumption for a green campus construction.