我国工业投资、产能过剩与通胀通缩转换分析

The Analysis of Industry Investment、Excess Production Capacity and Inflation-Deflation conversion in China

利用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数以及结构性通胀模型考察了投资"潮涌"现象对通胀水平的冲击,深入阐述了产能过剩与通货膨胀并存的具体原因以及长期产能过剩条件下通胀与通缩转换的可能性.指出投资"潮涌"拉动了基础原材料行业的需求,引发物价水平上升.同时,工农业部门生产率差距也倒逼着农产品价格不断上涨,推高通胀水平.地方政府和国企的投资冲动、制造业在CPI中比重较低以及通胀成因复杂是我国产能过剩与通胀并存的真正原因,从长期来看,产能过剩行业的生存空间日益缩小,投资拉动需求推高价格上涨的传导机制不可持续,通胀向通缩转换具有很大可能性.最后,给出了相应的政策建议.

This paper uses Vector Autoregression Model and Impulse Response Function and structural inflation model to examine the impact of the phenomenon of investment tide on in- flation, deeply elaborates the specific reasons for the coexistence of excess production capacity and inflation and the possibilities of inflation and deflation conversion under the background of long-term excess production capacity. The conclusion is that the investment tide stim- ulates the demand for basic materials industry, causing the price level to rise. Meanwhile, the productivity gap between the industrial sector and agricultural sector forces the prices of agricultural products to continue rising, pushing up inflation. The investment impulse of local governments and state-owned enterprises, the lower proportion of manufacturing industry in the CPI and the complex causes of inflation are the real causes of the coexistence of excess pro- duction capacity and inflation. In the long term, the living space of the industries with excess production capacity is shrinking, the transmission mechanism of investment needs pushing up prices is not sustainable, the conversion from inflation to deflation has great possibilities. In the end, the article gives corresponding policy recommendations.