对外直接投资推动产业结构升级:赶超经济体的经验

FDI Promotes the Upgrading of Industrial Structure: the Experience in Catching up with and Overtaking Economies

本文选取了日本、韩国及台湾等经济体进行实证研究表明,对外直接投资与产业结构升级均具有长期的协整关系。进一步分析发现,韩国、台湾对外直接投资对产业结构升级具有显著积极影响,对外直接投资是产业结构升级的原因,同时,产业结构升级反过来会影响对外直接投资,产业结构升级是对外直接投资增长的Granger因。而日本对外直接投资与产业结构升级之间并没有显著的关系,方差分解中对外直接投资对产业结构升级的解释力也较弱。产生这种差异的重要原因在于日本在样本期间内发生汇率持续大幅升值等特殊因素。对此,我国应借鉴韩国、台湾等经济体的经验,借助巨额外汇储备促进企业加快对外直接投资,以此反过来主动推动产业结构优化。

The relationship between FDI and the upgrading of industrial structure is not only an important theoretical question of international economy,but also it is an actual question that must be urgently answered if FDI is to be enlarged under the background that China greatly pushes the upgrading of industrial structure.This paper selects the data of the economies like Japan,Korea and Taiwan at the development stage similar to that of current China and empirically analyzes them. Research indicates that FDI has a long-term cointegration relationship with the upgrading of industrial structure. Further analysis shows that the FDI of Korea and Taiwan has significant active effects on the upgrading of industrial structure. FDI is the cause for the upgrading of industrial structure. Meanwhile,the upgrading of industrial structure affects FDI in return. The upgrading of industrial structure is the Granger cause of the growth of FDI. In Japan,there is no significant relationship between FDI and the upgrading of industrial structure. The explaining power of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure is relatively weak in variance decomposition. The important reason for the difference is that Japanese yen's exchange rate experienced successive sharp appreciation. Therefore,China should learn from the experiences of the economies such as Korea and Taiwan and promote enterprises to speed up FDI with the aid of huge foreign exchange reserve and actively push the optimization of industrial structure.