宏观经济因素对公司资本结构影响的研究——兼论三种资本结构理论的关系

Study on the Impacts of Macroeconomic Factors on Corporate Capital Structure——Discussing the Relationship between Three Kinds of Capital Structure Theories

本文首先从公司资金供给和需求的角度,结合权衡理论、最优融资顺序理论和市场择机理论,从理论上分析了宏观经济因素对不同财务杠杆公司资本结构的影响。然后,采用1999-2013年中国上市公司和宏观经济的面板数据,就宏观经济因素对公司资本结构变化的影响进行了实证分析并发现:经济周期对所有杠杆类型公司资本结构呈顺周期影响;信贷周期对低杠杆公司资本结构呈顺周期影响,但只对高杠杆公司有息债务率呈逆周期影响;所有杠杆类型公司有息债务率和股市表现呈现反方向变化。三种资本结构理论分别或同时适用于不同杠杆公司资本结构变化的解释。最后,本文讨论了三种资本结构理论的关系,认为权衡理论是决定公司资本结构长期变化的"战略"理论,其它两种理论是决定公司短期融资行为的"战术"理论。在公司资金供给类型和需求类型匹配(不匹配)时,权衡理论和其它两种理论对于资本结构变化解释是一致(不一致)的。这种解释为将三种理论统一起来提供了一种分析思路。

This paper firstly analyzes the impacts of macroeconomic factors on the capital structure of companies that have different financial levers by using trade-off theory,pecking order theory and market timing theory from the perspective of the supply and demand of companies' funds. Then,it empirically analyzes the effects of macroeconomic factors on the changes of corporate capital structure by the panel data on Chinese listed companies and macro-economy from 1999 to 2013 and finds: economic cycle has pro-cycle effect on the capital structure of leveraged companies; credit cycle has the pro-cycle effect on the capital structure of low leveraged companies and only has the countercycle effect on the interest-bearing debt ratio of high leveraged companies. The interest-bearing debt ratio of all kinds of leveraged companies and the stock market change in the opposite direction. The three capital structure theories respectively or simultaneously apply to the explanation of the capital structure's change of different leveraged companies. Finally,this paper discusses the relationship among the three theories on capital structure and thinks trade-off theory is the ' strategic' theory for determi-ning corporate capital structure and the other two theories are the 'tactical'theories for determining corporate short-term financing behaviors. When the types of funds supply match /mismatch the types of funds demand,the three theories' explanations are consistent /inconsistent. This explanation provides one method for unifying the three theories.