货币政策调控、公众学习与中国通胀预期的演变

The Adjustment of Monetary Policy,the Learning Behavior of the Public and the Evolution of the Inflation Expectation in China

本文以新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型为框架,结合我国综合运用数量型与价格型货币政策工具的现实和公众学习机制,探讨我国通胀预期的演变。研究发现:我国通胀预期的形成是货币政策、通胀目标和公众学习机制综合作用的结果;我国对通胀目标采取顺周期调整,舒缓了外部冲击对货币政策的压力,在保持货币政策相对稳健性的同时,造成了通胀大起大落的变化周期;公众学习对通胀预期形成的影响受货币政策工具类型、反通胀立场、政策可信度的影响。我国在管理通胀预期过程中应明确构造以通胀目标为代表的名义锚,借助中央银行的沟通渠道,提高其透明度,通过反通胀实践,改善其可信度,以降低公众的预期形成偏差,引导公众形成与政策目标一致的通胀预期。

The paper discussed the evolution of inflation expectation in China by the comprehensive using of inserting quantitative and price-based monetary policy instruments and the learning behavior of the public into New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which was used as the anaysis skeleton.The results show that the formation of inflation expectations is the combined effects of monetary policy,inflation target and the learning mechanism of the public.China adjusted inflation target pro-cyclically which relieved the pressure of external shocks on monetary policy and construct the ups and downs of the inflation cycle while maintaining the relative robustness of monetary policy.The effect of learning behavior of the public on the formation of inflation expectation was influenced by the type of monetary policy instruments,the anti-inflation stance and the credibility of policy.China should clearly announce the nominal anchor which is represented by the inflation target,improve its transparency by the central bank communication,and advance its credibility by the anti-inflation practices to reduce the formation of expectation bias of the public and guide the public to form inflation expectation which is consistent with the policy objectives.