资本项目开放、汇率政策对宏观经济与社会福利的影响——基于一般均衡的视角

The Impact of Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Policy on Macroeconomic and Social Welfare:Based on General Equilibrium

本文基于新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡框架,建立包含资本项目部分管制、汇率不完全传导和工资价格粘性等符合我国经济运行特征的模型框架,详细考察资本项目开放、汇率政策对宏观经济与社会福利的影响。数值模拟结果表明:加强资本项目或汇率管制能够减少汇率波动的冲击效应,提高货币政策对产出、通货膨胀的影响力度,总体上有利于宏观经济的稳定运行;适度的资本项目与汇率管制在当前有助于提升社会福利。考虑到我国经济和金融发展水平,我国应当保持适当的资本项目管制,审慎推进资本项目开放,同时进一步增加人民币汇率弹性,使人民币汇率及早调整至合理的均衡区间,通过主动扩大双向浮动区间,改变升值预期,有效缓解和应对未来美元波动带来的冲击,也为短期内改善我国出口贸易环境、长期内实现产业升级创造有利条件。

The paper constructs a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE)including capital regulation,incomplete pass through of exchange rate and price and wage rigidity which characterizes Chinese economy.Through model estimation and impulse response identification,the paper studies the economic effect of monetary policy and exchange rate.The result shows that management floating exchange rate and moderate regulation of capital account is benefit to the independence and adjustment effectiveness of domestic monetary policy,stability of macro-economy against to RMB exchange rate volatility.The capital account and exchange rate regulation can enhance the social welfare.In view of Chinese economic development and financial situation,China should liberalize capital account steadily and prudentially;The central bank should further enhance the elasticity of Renminbi exchange rate,broaden the dual volatility interval and changeRenminbi appreciation expectation to make the exchange rate to the equilibrium level.These measures can effectively counteract the US Dollar appreciation shock and create good condition for the environment improvement of Chinese trade sector and industry escalation.