中国产业结构与经济增长研究:1990-2012

A Study on Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in China:1990-2012

全要素生产率是分析经济增长源泉的重要工具,文章通过使用与前人不同的方法计算出1990-2012年中国三次产业全要素生产率,发现中国经济历年来主要靠第二产业全要素生产率拉动,但是2009年以后第三产业全要素生产率开始超越第二产业,成为经济增长的主要拉动因素。此外,文章计算出三次产业资本边际产出比重,从中可以看出我国应当调整投资在产业间的分配以提高资本效率。最后,通过产业结构与三次产业就业关系的研究发现,第三产业就业人数增加能够促进第三产业产值占国内生产总值的比重。

As the total factor productivity（TFP） is an important tool to analyze the sources of economic growth,the paperemploys a different approach to calculate the TFP of three industries in China from the year of 1990 to 2012. It finds thatChina’s economy has been driven by the TFP of the secondary industry over the years,but the TPF of the tertiary industrybegins to surpass that of the second industry and becomes the main driving force for economic growth after the year of 2009.In addition,this paper calculates the proportion of the marginal product of capital of three industries,from which it can beseen that China should adjust the allocation of investment in industries in order to raise capital efficiency. Finally,the pa-per discovers that the increase of employment in the tertiary industry can improve the output value of the tertiary industry asa proportion of GDP through the study of the relationship between industrial structure and employment in three industries.