中国农村居民的收入波动如何影响了消费波动?——基于结构视角的实证研究

How Income Volatility of China Rural Residents Affects Consumption Volatility? An Empirical Study Based on the Perspective of Structure

基于农民收入来源不同和消费类型差异,文章从结构视角研究了经营性收入波动、非经营性收入波动与食品消费波动、非食品消费波动之间的相关关系,发现具有稳定性质的经营性收入的波动是影响各类型消费波动的最主要原因;具有稳定性质的经营性收入波动对具有稳定性质的食品消费波动的影响远远高于对非食品消费波动的影响程度,而具有非稳定性质的非经营性收入波动对具有非稳定性质的非食品消费波动的影响程度远远高于对食品消费波动的影响程度;金融信贷等因素对农民食品消费波动具有明显的平抑作用,但对非食品消费波动的影响不显著,表明恒久性收入假说在收入和消费结构层面上的合理性。文章的政策涵义为:一方面要采取政策措施稳定农村居民的经营性收入,其是稳定消费的关键;另一方面要通过促进金融发展等政策措施提高农村居民平滑非食品消费波动的能力。

Based on income sources and consumption type, this paper investigated the relationship among operat-ing income fluctuations, non-operating income fluctuations and food consumption fluctuations, and non-food con-sumption fluctuations from the structure perspective. Findings are stability operating income fluctuations mostlyaffect various types of consumption fluctuations; stability operating income fluctuations have effects on stabilityfood consumption fluctuations far above on fluctuations of non-food consumption; non-stability non-operating in-come fluctuations have effects on the volatility of non-food consumption much higher than on the fluctuations offood consumption; financial credit to farmershas a significant stabilizing effect on fluctuations of food consump-tion, but has not significant effect on volatility of non-food consumption. This indicates that the permanent in-come hypothesis is reasonable in the structure of income and consumption level. Policy implications of this paperare policy measures should be taken to stabilize the operating incomes of rural residents, which is the key to sta-bilizing consumers; policies should be made to enhance the ability to smooth non-food consumption of rural resi-dents.