东亚区域在全球价值链分工中的依赖关系——基于TiVA数据的实证分析

The Dependence of East Asia in Global Value Chains Network:An Empirical Analysis Based on TiVA Database

本文依据Koopman(2010)的全球价值链分解原理,将东亚区域在全球价值链分工中的依赖关系分为"上游依赖"和"最终需求依赖"两个层面,并相应构建了"后向关联度"和"最终需求贡献率"两个指标体系加以衡量。利用WTO-OECD发布的附加值贸易数据进行实证分析后发现,在"上游依赖"层面,东亚区域的内部依赖大于外部依赖,区域内部在生产分工中的经济联系日益紧密;同时,中国在东亚区域的上游供给者地位正在上升,日本在下降。在"最终需求依赖"层面,东亚区域对欧美国家仍然存在一定程度的"外部依赖",但是外部依赖和内部依赖都呈现出"倒V型"发展趋势,东亚区域的内部经济发展动力有待增强。

According to the GVC decomposition in Koopman（2010）, we divide the dependence of East Asia into ＂upsteam dependence＂ and ＂final demand dependence＂, and construct two indexes which are ＂backward linkage＂ and ＂final demand contribution＂ to measure them. After the empirical analysis using TiVA database issued by WTO-OECD, we find that the ＂upstream dependence＂ inside the region is greater than the one outside the region, and intra-region economic linkage under production division is getting more closed. Besides, with the depressing of Japan role, China as the supplier is playing a growing role in East Asia. There is still some level of ＂final demand dependence＂ on America and EU15 for East Asia, but the trend of such dependence both inside and outside shows a kind of ＂inverted V type＂, therefore, the intra-region driving force for economic development of East Asia needs to be strengthened.