为什么金融风险管理并不充分?——基于风险与根本不确定性的差别

Why Financial Risk Management is not Sufficient?——From the Perspective of the Differences between Risk and Fundamental Uncertainty

传统的风险管理范式是建立在有效市场理论的遍历性假设之上,因将风险与不确定性等同起来,积极倡导自由市场,看不到任何市场异常现象和政府干预金融市场存在的逻辑。一旦走进根本不确定性的世界里,这些有效市场理论的方案就不合适了,而后凯恩斯经济学家提出非遍历性理论,摆脱斯密"看不见的手"机制,解释了金融危机的基本原因,再次回归市场不稳定性和政府干预有效性,更好地理解政府干预金融市场的新原则——在于降低根本无法消除的不确定性范围,揭示出现代金融风险管理模型缺陷,进一步弥合经济理论与现实世界之间的巨大脱节,对于完善我国金融市场制度具有重要的指导意义。

In terms of distinguishing from the risk and fundamental uncertainty （FU） concepts, we found that the efficient market theory has itsweaknesses and applications resulting from Probable risk. Based on the non-ergodicity axiom, the Post Keynesian Economics proposes its strengthsunder fundamental uncertain conditions beyond the full certainty. At the same time we found that the Post Keynesian Economics will create a newtheoretical model and financial market regulation to cope with the uncertain future. Hence we provide the new government regulation guidelines toreduce the fundamental uncertainty and form the stable expectations. Hence we discuss the modern risk management using mathematics , statistics,and econometrics, and the fundamental uncertainty plays an important role in China＇s financial market , not only the calculable risk, hence wefound all kinds of institutions matter.