中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易创造效应及贸易潜力——基于引力模型面板数据的实证分析

The Trade Creation Effect and Potential of CAFTA:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Gravity Model Panel Data

通过构建进口和出口贸易引力模型,运用2001～2012年中国与10个东盟成员国以及其他33个主要贸易伙伴国的面板数据,实证检验中国与东盟国家进出口贸易创造效应,测算中国与东盟国家进出口贸易潜力.结果显示,中国—东盟自由贸易区对中国与东盟国家进口贸易创造效应较为微弱,出口贸易创造效应较为明显,对中国而言更加有利;中国—东盟自由贸易区的贸易创造效应呈递减趋势,双方贸易潜力仍然巨大.

This article firstly described the status quo of the development of the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN, then it built GravityModel and analyzed the trade creation effect and potential of CAFTA based on panel data from 2001 to 2012 that including 10 members of ASEANand another 33 major trading partners of China. The results show that CAFTA significantly promotes China＇s import trade with ASEAN, but mildlypromotes China＇s export trade with ASEAN. Therefore, CAFTA has a significant positive trade effect, and it is more conducive to China. The tradecreation effect of CAFTA is of decreasing trend. However, the trade potential is still great between China and ASEAN.