美国撤军和阿富汗总统大选后的重建问题

The Reconstruction in Afghanistan after the Inauguration of New President and The ISAF Withdrawal

多国部队从阿富汗撤出与新总统就职后,阿富汗局势复杂性从两个方面凸显出来:一方面阿富汗面临着安全局势恶化的可能性。军阀战争重启、塔利班卷土重来等可能性是国际社会担忧的安全核心问题;阿富汗大选已尘埃落定,新总统已经就职,但各派政治力量之间的竞争在这次选举后不会平息,旧有的民族、部族、地域矛盾依然存在,滞后的经济和社会发展状况不可能在短期内解决,这是国际社会担忧的阿富汗政治与社会的结构性问题。另一方面,这种情况并不是绝对的。因为,多国部队在撤出后的战略部署以及阿富汗自身安全力量的建设都影响着阿富汗未来的前途。例如,无人机战术的使用在很大程度上压制了各派反政府武装的攻势。阿富汗"天下大乱"的可能性不大,但局部不稳定却是非常可能的。

After the withdrawal of the ISAF, the complexity of the situation in Afghanistan became prominent since the country is facing the possibility of a worsening security situation. The restart of the warlord war, as well as the revival of the Taliban are two problems where the international community is very concerned for. Although the results of the Afghan elections are already out, the competition between the different political powers will not calm down even after these elections. The old ethnic, tribal and regional conflicts still exist,and the lagging economical situation and social development can therefore not be resolved in a short period of time, which are the political and social structural issues of Afghanistan that international community concerns. On the other hand, however, this kind of situation is not at all absolute because the strategic plan after the withdrawal of the international forces and the construction of Afghanistan＇s own security forces are both influencing the prospect of Afghanistan＇s future. For example, the tactics of using drones by the ISAF can suppress the anti-government armed groups to a great extent.The likelihood of an overwhelming chaos on Afghan territory is rather small, but local instabilities are indeed very possible to occur.