中国产业结构变化的动因分析——基于投入产出模型的实证研究

On Motivations for Industrial Structure Change:Empirical Study Based on Input-output Model

文章依据工业化进程中产业结构变化的客观规律,在对1992-2010年中国经济发展各个时期进行"产业结构优化升级阶段"判别的基础上,通过建立竞争性投入产出模型对各产业部门产出的增长进行结构分解,以探究各产业部门产出增长的动因,并进行不同时期的比较分析,进而揭示中国产业结构优化升级的动因;同时对新兴的信息产业做了单独考察。文章还基于各种推动因素,多角度地考察了各产业部门之间的相互影响。研究发现:(1)在样本考察期,2002-2007年为产业结构优化升级时期,其推动因素为重工业的技术进步,其中冶金工业和机械工业的技术进步对产业结构优化升级的贡献较大。(2)信息产业产出快速增长的推动因素是信息产业的出口扩张和技术进步。(3)机械工业对多数产业部门都有重要影响且随时间推移变得越来越大;服务业的消费增长与投资增长对多数产业部门的消费增长与投资增长的影响较大。因此,未来实现产业结构优化升级的政策重点应是推进重工业的技术进步,尤其是冶金工业和机械工业的技术进步,扶持机械工业作为产业结构优化升级的主导产业;同时,鼓励和支持信息产业的出口和技术进步,促进服务业消费与投资增长与其他产业部门相应增长的联动发展。

According to objective law of industrial structure change in the process of industrialization, this paper judges the period of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure at the stage of economic development in China from 1992 to 2010, analyzes the motivations for output growth in industrial sectors by constructing competitive input-output model and making structural decomposition of output growth in industrial sectors, and makes a comparison between different stages, there- by revealing the motivations for optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time, it makes a separate investigation of the emerging information industry. It also investigates the mutual effects among industries from multi-perspectives based on driving factors. It comes to the results as follows： firstly, the period from 2002 to 2007 is the period of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure during the sample period from 1992 to 2010 and its driving force comes from technological progress in heavy industry, especially in metallurgy and machinery industries; second- ly, the driving forces of rapid output growth in information industry are export expansion and technological progress in information industry; thirdly, machinery industry has important effect on the majority of industries, which is bigger and bigger over time; consumption and investment growth in service industry have greater effects on consumption and investment growth in the majority of industries. Consequently, future policy of realizing optimization and upgrading of industrial structure should focus on advancing technological progress in heavy industry, especially in metallurgy and machinery industries, supporting machinery industry as the leading industry of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, encouraging export and technological progress in information industry and promoting joint development of consumption and investment growth in service industry and the corresponding growth in other industries.