基于Maxent的椰子致死性黄化植原体在中国的适生性分析

Potential Distribution of Coconut Lethal Yellowing Phytoplasma in China Predicted Based on Maxent

利用Maxent生态位模型和Arc GIS软件,并结合椰子树(以下简称椰树)在中国的种植分布,对椰子致死性黄化植原体在中国及中国椰树种植区的适生性进行了预测。结果表明:中国主要的椰树种植区均为椰子致死性黄化病的潜在适生区,其中华南沿海地区及海南大部分地区属于中风险区和高风险区。经ROC曲线分析法验证,Maxent模型的AUC值为0.992,表明预测结果具有较高的可信度。

The potential distribution regions of coconut lethal yellowing phytoplasma in China and in coconut growth regions of China were predicted by using Maxent model and ArcGIS, combined with the distribution of coconut in China. The results showed that most coconut growth regions in China were the potential distribution regions for the pathogen. Coastal areas of south China and most regions in Hainan were at moderate to high risk of the pathogen establishment. The checked result of receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve analysis showed that the area under curve（AUC）value of Maxent model reached 0.992, indicating that the predicted results was fairly satisfactory.