人民币汇率变动与资本流动、宏观经济的联动反应研究——以广东省和贵州省为例

Research on the Linkage between Fluctuations of RMB Exchange Rate,Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Growth

随着人民币汇率市场化进程的不断加快,研究汇率波动与资本流动、宏观经济增长之间的联动反应显得尤为必要。在不同经济类型下,这一联动反应呈现出的特征不尽相同。本文以出口导向型的广东省和市场导向型的贵州省为例,运用计量模型分别对两省的情况进行回归分析,研究人民币汇率变动对我国不同地区经济活动的影响,并提出相关政策建议。

As the process of the RMB exchange rate reform is accelerating,the research of the linkage between exchange rate fluctuations,capital flow and macroeconomic growth is particularly necessary. However,under differenteconomic types,the linkage shows different characteristics. In this paper,with the use of econometric models for re-gression analysis,it takes Guangdong as a sample of the export-oriented provinces and Guizhou as a sample of the market-oriented provinces,in order to study the effects of changes in the RMB exchange rate on economic activity in different regions of our country. Then the paper makes relevant policy recommendations.