印度洋长策:目标2049

Long-term Strategy on the Indian Ocean: the 2049 Goal

印度洋是古今大国争夺世界霸权必然要关注但进入后其结局都不好的区域。一般说来,控制印度洋的制海权必须有覆盖南北纬30度区域的作战能力——而只有世界性的大国才会有这样的能力,不然,其前途要么崛起,要么灭亡。但古今霸权国家来到印度洋便进入衰落期的教训告诉我们:在印度洋地区争强好胜的结果都是不好的,独吞世界从而独控印度洋的想法是不切实际的,对中国而言更是非常危险的,只有分享才是守福之道。国家发展道路并非只有要么衰落要么崛起即行扩张的黑白两道,在这中间一定会有守中持重的可持续发展的道路。世界只能在分享繁荣中和谐前进:欧洲当为欧洲人民的欧洲,美洲当为美洲人民的美洲,亚洲自然也是亚洲人民的。中国未来应当在"一截遗欧,一截赠美"的愿景中为自己也为亚洲争取到"一截还东国"的前途。大国崛起于地区性守成,消失于世界性扩张,节制性地运用国力既是保持国力持续增长的秘密,也是中国几千年屹立不倒的智慧所在。中国坚守地区性守成的政策既可帮助印度洋国家减轻"要么做一个有声有色的大国,要么就销声匿迹"的紧迫感,也会让中国避免在印度洋地区不恰当地透支国力并由此保证中国国内政治经济在21世纪下半叶的持续发展。

In order to seek world hegemony, the great powers, no matter in modern times or in history, must pay attention to the Indian Ocean. However, after entering it, they always found that the outcome is not good. Generally speaking, to control the Indian Ocean, it requires a combat capability that covers the area between 30°N and 30°S, and only the world powers can have such capability, otherwise, they would either rise or die. But a lesson has been taught that as soon as the ancient and modern hegemony countries came to Indian Ocean, they would quickly enter the period of decline. It shows that national competition over the Indian Ocean will only cause bad results, any idea that believes a country can dominate the world and thus occupy the Indian Ocean alone is unrealistic, and is also very dangerous to China. To maintain prosperity, the countries must learn how to share with each other. The national development road does not only lead to two directions, rise or die, but there must be a middle point, that is, the sustainable development road. The world can only advance harmoniously by sharing prosperity, namely, Europe is for the European people, America is for the American people, and Asia is also for the Asian people. With a vision of taking into consideration the interests of Europe and America, China will also strive for a good future for Asia and itself. The great powers came into being due to their regional strategy of maintaining what is already there and disappeared for their worldwide expansion. In China, making use of national power moderately is not only the secret to maintaining its continued growth, but also proves the wisdom behind the fact that China has stood firmly in the thousands of years of history. Sticking to a regional policy of maintaining the existing results can cast the Indian Ocean countries away from the pressure to 'be an impressive country or disappear', as Nehru once said, and can also prevent China from overusing its national strength in the Indian Ocean and thus guarantee the sustainable development of Chinese politics and economy in the second half of the 21 st century.