基于Ordered Probit模型的区域客运通道需求层次识别

Demand Level Identification of Regional Passenger Transport Corridor Based on Ordered Probit Model

为保证区域客运通道运力资源的合理配置,选取客运需求层次为因变量,个人收入、出行目的、心理偏好为控制变量,建立了客运需求层次识别的Ordered Probit模型。根据成渝客运通道的相关调查数据,利用Stata软件的oprobit命令实现参数估计,并借助MATLAB软件的插值技术,描绘出该通道内控制变量对因变量的作用效果变化特征三维图。结果表明:此需求层次识别模型可以良好的表征不同影响因素下旅客的需求层级。

To ensure the rational allocation of regional passenger transport corridor capacity resources, the demand level was selected as the dependent variable, and personal income, trip purpose together with psychological preferences were selected as the control variables, Therefore, an Ordered Probit model for the passenger demand level identification was established. Based on the Cbengdu-Cbongqing passenger transport corridor survey data, a three-dimensional view of the effect of the control variables on the dependent variable within the transport corridor was depicted by the use of oprobit command of Stata software to achieve the parameter estimation and by means of interpolation technology of MATLAB software. The results show that the demand level recognition model can well reflect the demand level of tourists with different influencing factors.