全球多区域CGE模型的构建及其3E扩展

Global multi-regional CGE model with its 3E extensions

全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium,CGE)是最重要的全球气候政策评估工具之一。该文给出了自主开发的全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(global applied general equilibrium model,GAGE)的理论框架,描述了区域内框架的地区账户收入分配方案和生产模块的嵌套结构以及区域间框架的国际贸易结构和2个虚拟国际机构的构建,即建立国际运输部门和国际银行用于描述国际贸易的运输服务供需以及投资的区域间流动。在标准GAGE模型的基础上进行了能源-环境-经济扩展,以描述能源与资本之间以及各类能源之间的替代关系。碳减排情景研究结果验证了GAGE模型理论框架的合理性,展示了能源替代对于减排潜力的显著影响。

Global multi-regional computable general equilibrium（CGE）models are some of the most important tools for global climate policy assessments.This paper presents the theoretical framework for a global multi-regional CGE model called the global applied general equilibrium model（GAGE）developed using the general algebraic modeling system.The intra-regional framework analyzes the income distribution in regional households and the nested production module structure, while the inter-regional framework focuses on the international trade structure and the construction of two fictitious global institutes,an international transportation sector and a global bank,which were established to describe the supply and demand of transportation services in international trade and investment flows between regions.The GAGE model was used with energy-environment-economy（3E）extensions to describe the substitution between capital and energy and between different fuels. The results of carbon reduction scenarios verify the reasonableness of the theoretical framework and show that energy substitution significantly impacts emissions reduction potential.