基于模型有效度的地区电网母线负荷组合预测与系统实现

Combination forecasting based on model availability for district network bus loads and its system implementation

地区电网母线负荷预测是确定运行方式、进行安全校核的基础,也是智能电网建设的重要内容。组合预测是解决母线负荷分散性和不确定性的有效手段,其关键在于预测模型的选择和组合策略的确定。从地区电网母线负荷的特点出发,引入预测模型有效度概念,提出基于关联度的组合模型集确定方法和模型有效度灰色预测方法,利用组合模型有效度的归一化系数建立组合预测模型,并基于C#平台开发地区电网母线负荷预测系统。该系统在某地区电网的应用证明了所提方法的正确性和有效性。

The bus load forecasts of district network are the basis for the operation mode determination and security check,as well as the vital part of smart grid construction. The combination forecasting is an effective solution to the dispersivity and uncertainty of bus loads and the selection of forecast model and the determination of combination strategy are its essentials. According to the characteristics of district network bus loads ,a concept of forecast model availability is introduced. A method of combination model set determination based on the correlation degree and a method of model availability grey forecasting are proposed. The normalized coefficient of combination model availability is used to build the combination forecast model and a forecasting system of district network bus loads is developed on C# platform. Its application in a district network verifies the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.