中国制造业上市公司创新持续性研究——基于离散久期模型

The Persistence of China's Manufacturing Firms' Innovation——Based on Discrete time Duration Model

基于549家中国制造业上市公司2002—2012年的面板数据,以专利作为创新的代理变量,通过测量持续创新时间,运用生存分析的方法,实证研究中国制造业上市公司是否存在创新持续性,实证结果表明:(1)中国制造业企业存在持续创新,持续创新的平均年限为九年。(2)创新持续时间在三年以内时,高新技术类企业的生存概率要大于非高新技术类企业,而创新持续时间超过三年时,高新技术类企业生存的概率要小于非高新技术类企业。然后以企业创新的风险率作为被解释变量,运用离散久期模型,通过控制以前研究中运用连续时间久期模型所出现的问题(不可观测的异质性,比例风险假设),实证研究影响持续创新的因素。实证结果表明:企业经营年限、人均资本比率对企业的持续创新影响显著为正,企业规模对持续创新的影响显著为负,而企业利润对持续创新的影响不够显著;民营企业的创新持续性要大于国有企业。

This study using a panel dataset of 549 China＇s public manufacturing firms over the period of 2002 -2012, using patent as proxy variables of innovation, to examine weather manufacturing firms exit the persistence of innovation by measuring the time of continuous innovation, and using survival analysis method. The empirical results show that： （ 1 ） China~ Manufacturing Firms exit persistence effect, and the average time is 9 years. （2） When the duration year is less that 3 years, the survival rate of scientific industries is greater than non - scientific industries, when the duration year is more that 3 years, the result inverse. At last, we use hazard rate as dependent variable, employing discrete time duration model to account for some problems in the prior continuous time duration model （firm heterogeneity and proportion hazard hypothesis）, examining the determinants of innovations in China＇s manufacturing sector. The empirical results show that： （1） Firms＇age and capital ratio have positive effect to persistence in- novation, firms＇ size have negative effect to persistence innovation, the effect of firms＇profit is not significant. （2） The persistence of private enter- prises is greater than state - owned enterprises.