货币政策应该对住房价格波动作出反应吗——基于两部门动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Should Monetary Policy Respond to the Movements in House Price:An Analysis Based on Two-sector DSGE Model

本文建立了一个包含耐心家庭和缺乏耐心家庭两类异质性家庭、包含消费品部门和房地产部门两个异质性生产部门的多家庭、多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,研究货币政策是否应该对住房价格波动作出反应。本文的研究表明,货币政策冲击是决定我国住房价格波动的关键因素,因此应该从货币政策人手来平抑住房价格波动;货币政策是否对真实住房价格作出反应是决定住房价格波动的关键因素,也是决定福利损失大小的关键因素。对真实住房价格作出反应的货币政策能够显著降低住房价格波动,并通过金融加速器机制降低经济波动和福利损失。因此,我国的货币政策应该对真实住房价格作出反应。

This article builds a multi-household and multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous households consist of a patient one and an impatient one and heterogeneous pro- duction sectors consist of a consumer goods sector and a real estate sector, and then studies how should mon- etary policy respond to the movements in house price. The researches show that, monetary policy shock is the most important reason of house price volatility and then monetary policy should be used to stabilize house price; whether monetary policy responds to the movements in house price determines house price volatility, economic volatility and welfare loss. Because monetary policy rule responding to movements in house price can decrease house price volatility, and then decrease economic volatility and welfare loss through financial accelerator effects, monetary policy should respond to the movements in house price.