应用回归法预测贵州省伤寒副伤寒发病

Predicting the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever by regression analysis in Guizhou province

目的预测贵州省伤寒、副伤寒发病趋势,为进一步制定伤寒、副伤寒防控策略和措施提供依据。方法根据贵州省2004-2012年的伤寒、副伤寒发病率数据,用Excel软件建立数据库进行趋势回归模型的选择,然后利用合适的模型对该数据进行拟合,并预测2013、2014年伤寒、副伤寒发病率,分析其变化趋势。结果建立的贵州省2004-2012年伤寒、副伤寒发病率预测模型为二次多项式趋势回归模型,即y=0.3 821x2-5.8 632x+24.785,决定系数R2=0.9 909,模型拟合效果较好。2013年和2014年预测发病率分别为4.36/10万、6.52/10万。结论贵州省伤寒、副伤寒发病率近年来呈逐年下降趋势,2013年和2014年预测发病率有所升高,需采取综合防治措施。

Objective To predict the prevalence tendency of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever,and to provide a scientific basis for typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever control and prevention. Methods The regression model was completed according to the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever from 2004 to 2012 by Excel software,and the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in 2013 and 2014 was predicted based on the established equation,then the changing trend was analyzed. Results The predictive model of the incidence of the typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever from 2004 to 2012 was y = 0. 3821x^2-5. 8632x ＋ 24. 785,the coefficient of determination R^2 was 0. 9909,the model fits well. The predictive incidence in 2013 and2014 was 4. 36 /100000 and 6. 52 /100000 respectively. Conclusions There was a declining trend of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in recent years,but the predictive incidence in 2013 and 2014 had rising trend,comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken.