后埃及革命：网络对阿拉伯威权国家的影响

After Egypt:The Limits and Promise of Online Challenges to the Authoritarian Arab State

政治学领域对中东威权国家政权稳定性已有多项研究成果,但2010年阿拉伯革命中涌现的变化挑战了现有研究结论。社交媒体对抗争政治的影响意味着诸多领域需要重新审视。虽然信息传播环境的变革削弱了部分威权国家的核心能力,但同时也强化了其他威权国家的管控权力。这种信息环境的变化主要还是在新型公共领域的长期演进方面产生作用,而非引发突然的政治变革。已有多位学者积极进行研究,试图验证新媒体影响力的诸多假设。但这些研究要想取得进展,不仅要在理论概念方面有所创新,还需要借鉴中东地区传统研究所从未采用过的新型数据分析模型作为辅助研究手段。

The uprisings, which swept across the Arab world beginning in December 2010, pose a serious challenge to many of the core findings of the political science literature focused on the durability of the authoritarian Middle Eastem state. The impact of social media on contentious politics represents one of the many areas, which will require significant new thinking. The dramatic change in the information environment over the last decade has changed individual competencies, the ability to organize for collective action, and the transmission of information from the local to the international level. It has also strengthened some of the core competencies of authoritarian states even as it has undermined others. The long-term evolution of a new kind of public sphere may matter more than immediate political outcomes, however. Rigorous testing of competing hypotheses about the impact of the new social media will require not only conceptual development but also the use of new kinds of data analysis not traditionally adopted in Middle East area studies.