江浙对比视角下物流运输与农业经济的跨期关系研究

Study on Inter-temporal Relationship between Logistics Transportation and Agricultural Economy:A Zhejiang-Jiangsu Comparison Perspective

选取1992年-2013年的年度数据,综合利用协整分析和误差修正模型等计量方法,分长期和短期两个角度对比了浙江和江苏这两个物流发展强省的物流运输与农业经济之间的关系。研究发现,两省的物流运输与农业经济之间均存在长期和短期的稳定关系,即跨期关系均得以体现,但短期表现形式存在较大差异,江苏省短期内农业增速的提高主要靠劳动力的增速,而浙江省短期内农业增速的提高主要靠农业产品出口的增速。最后,提出了相关对策建议。

In this paper, through co-integration analysis and error correction model, we compared the long-term and short-term relationship between the logistics transportation and agricultural economy of Zhejiang and Jiangsu for the period between 1992 and 2013, elaborated on the findings, and at the end, proposed the corresponding countermeasures.