异质预期演化与我国房价泡沫的形成

THE EVOLUTION OF HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS AND FORMATION OF CHINA HOUSING PRICE BUBBLES

本文基于演化金融方法,将房地产市场投资者预期分为稳健型预期(投资策略是根据基本面投资)和风险型预期(投资策略是追涨杀跌)两类,同时投资者会根据市场环境调整自身预期,在此基础上测度了不同类型预期在我国房价泡沫形成中的作用,并进一步区分了不同城市房价泡沫的类型。研究表明:尽管稳健型预期对房价泡沫存在显著抑制效应,但风险型预期的放大效应在房价泡沫形成中起了主导作用;此外,东部地区城市房价泡沫主要属于强风险型预期与强稳健型预期型,中西部地区城市房价泡沫则主要属于弱稳健型预期型。

This paper divides the expectations of housing market investors into two categories of ro-bust expectations and risky expectations, and measures the impacts of heterogeneous expectations on the formation of housing price bubbles when the investors can alter their expectations according to the market dynamics based on the evolutionary finance methods. Furthermore, we identify the types of different cities＇ housing price bubbles and find risky expectations play dominant roles in the formation of housing price bubbles while the impacts of robust expectations are also significant and the main housing price bubbles type of east region cities is strong risky expectations and strong robust expectations while middle and west region cities is weaken robust expectations.