基于模糊一致矩阵的我国对外直接投资宏观风险分析

ANALYSIS OF MACRO LEVEL RISK OF CHINA'S FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT BASED ON FUZZY CONSISTENT MATRIX

后金融危机时期国际政治经济局势复杂多变,我国对外直接投资的宏观风险明显增大。判断与衡量东道国宏观风险状况,成为投资决策的重要前提。本文在分析我国对外直接投资的政治与政策风险、宏观经济风险、市场风险和行业风险等宏观风险基础上,选取对外直接投资限制性指数、不变价格GDP的变化率、利率以及破产企业数四个指标,运用模糊一致矩阵方法,对我国较为重要的投资东道国——十五个OECD成员的宏观投资风险进行了衡量和排序,提供了判断与衡量东道国宏观风险的思路与方法。

International political and economic environment implicate increasing uncertainty in the post-financial crisis era. The macro level risk of foreign investment of our country is increasing. Assessment of host country＇s macro level risk is become an important part of OFDI decision making process. This paper analyses political and policy risk, macroeconomic risk, market risk, sector risk, operation and manage- ment risk of China＇s foreign direct investment. Fuzzy consistent matrix method is applied, with OFDI re- strictiveness indices, percentage change of constant price GDP, interest rate and number of firms went bankrupt as indicators, to analyze macro level risk in fifteen OECD countries, which are important host country of China＇s outward direct investment. The results give an overall risk assessment of the countries, and a new method of OFDI risk assessment based on a fuzzy analysis is built.