云南省碳排放历史变化特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of Historical Trend Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Yunnan Province

基于1980—2011年云南省经济发展和能源消费数据,计算了云南省碳排放量和碳排放强度,并分析了历史变化特征。采用LMDI法定量分析了能源结构、能源效率和经济发展因素对云南省人均碳排放的影响效应。结果表明,1980—2011年,云南省一次能源消费产生的碳排放总量呈指数型递增。碳排放量中平均有88.55%来自煤炭的消费,9.53%来自石油的消费,1.92%来自天然气的消费。32年来云南省人均碳排放增长的主要原因是经济发展的拉动作用,经济发展对人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长;抑制因素主要是能源效率的提高;能源结构的调整对人均碳排放的抑制效应不显著。

Carbon emissions and its intensity of Yunnan province from the year of 1980 to 2011 were calculated based on the statistic data of economic development and energy consumption. The trend of carbon emissions was analyzed as well. The effects of energy structure, energy efficiency, and economic development on per capita carbon emissions of Yunnan were calculated using LMDI method. The percentage of 88.55 of carbon emissions was from carbon consumption. The petroleum consumption accounted for 9.53%. The contribution of economic development showed an exponential relationship with per capita carbon emission. The increase of energy efficiency was one of the constraints of carbon emission. However, the adjustments of energy structure did not obviously decrease the emissions.