重庆地区江水源热泵取水水源的时序分析

Time Series Analysis on Water Source of River-water Source Heat Pump in Chongqing Area

为了解重庆段长江水作为热泵取水水源的全年变化情况，通过长江重庆段2011年-2012年逐日水温、2006年-2013年逐日水位等基础数据，分析了其总体变化规律；利用2003年-2012年部分年份的月平均水温序列、2006年-2013年的月平均水位序列，采用时间序列中的确定性分析方法分析了其水温、水位的季节效应及趋势变化等规律。结果表明：在11月至次年的2月，日平均气温一般低于江水水温3～5℃，此时利用江水源热泵供热具有较好的水温条件；长江重庆段江水月平均温度序列均值为18．9℃，各季节指数的分布范围为0．600～1．385；长江重庆段的年际江水水位序列变化带有明显的突变性，蓄水调整后的各月平均水位序列季节指数分布范围为0．962～1．030，剔除季节影响因素后，且不考虑7月、8月、9月，其月平均水位围绕170m进行波动。在此基础上，对影响江水源热泵取水系统的设计、运行水位和水温极值情况进行了探讨，提出在时序分析的基础上对各自然月的基础数据进行统计更具适用性。

To understand the annual variation of river water in the Chongqing ＇section of the Yangtze River used as water source of heat pump, the total variation rule was analyzed by measuring the daily river water temperature from 2011 to 2012 and the daily river water level from 2006 to 2013, and the seasonal effect and tendency of water temperature and water level were analyzed by using the monthly average water temperature series in some years from 2003 to 2012 and the monthly average water level series from 2006 to 2013 through the deterministic analysis method in time series. The results showed that from November to next February, the daily average air temperature was generally 3 to 5 ℃ lower than the Yangtze River water temperature, which was good for the use of river water source heat pump. The monthly average water temperature was 18.9 ℃, and the distribution range of seasonal index was 0. 600 to 1. 385. The interannual water level fluctuations were significant, and the distribution range of seasonal index was 0. 962 to 1. 030. After the seasonal factors were eliminated, without taking into account the data from July to September, the monthly average water level was about 170 m. Based on the above, the extreme values of water temperature and water level that may influence the design and operation of the system were discussed, and statistics analysis should be conducted according to basic data of each calendar month rather than calendar year based on time series method.