城市轨道交通系统脆弱性因素辨识模型研究

Vulnerability Identification Model of Urban Rail Transit System

为构建城市轨道交通系统脆弱性因素辨识模型,本研究整合DEMATEL、ISM、ANP三种系统分析方法对城市轨道交通系统脆弱性进行分析研究.通过分析城市轨道交通系统的典型事故,从系统的角度出发,提取通用典型脆弱性因素;使用DEMATELISM-ANP方法构建城市轨道交通系统脆弱性辨识模型,整合脆弱性因素的特征与脆弱性因素间的相互影响方向与强度大小,因素的层级结构与因素的相对重要性,确定城市轨道交通系统脆弱性的递阶层次网络结构模型;根据递阶层次网络结构模型的分析结果,将城市轨道交通系统的脆弱性因素分成驱动、链接、依赖、独立四类脆弱性因素.研究结果表明,该模型切实可行,能够对城市轨道交通系统脆弱性进行量化分析.

There are many vulnerability factors that can make urban rail transit system unsafe and endanger its operation. With the purpose of developing an identification model of vulnerability factors for urban rail transit system, the combined method is proposed which integrates three kinds of method including the DEMATEL, the ISM and the ANP. In the view of the system, the vulnerability factors of urban rail transit system are extracted according to the analysis of typical accident. The hierarchical network structure model of vulnerability is developed using the integrated DEMATEL-ISM-ANP method which took into account a variety of factors, including the mutual influence direction and intensity of the factors, structure of the factors, and the relative importance degree of the factors. According to the analysis about the results of hierarchical network structure model, the vulnerability factors of urban rail transit system are divided into four types： driver, linkage, dependent, autonomous. It is found that the model of integrating the DEMATEL,the ISM and the ANP is appropriate for quantitatively analyzing the vulnerability factors of urban rail transit system.