城市快速路交通事件持续时间生存分析

Survival Analysis of Traffic Incident Duration for Urban Expressways

提出城市快速路交通事件持续时间生存分析方法.依托上海市中心快速路网的交通事件数据,将生存分析引入交通事件形成及演化机理分析.其根据大量交通事件样本的特征属性,采用Kaplan-Meyer的非参数回归构建基于风险的交通事件持续时间模型,解析其在五类影响因素作用下的时空分布特性,并采用Cox回归线性模型综合评价交通事件持续时间的显著影响因素,分析其作用的强度和方向,提取表征上海市快速路交通事件运营管理水平的重要特征参数.结果表明:上海市快速路的交通事件持续时间在不同类别的影响因素下分布特性存在明显差异,日夜、事件类型、涉及车辆数、影响车道数、涉及货车、所处路段位置、瓶颈处、出动拖车和出动消防车等影响因素对事件持续时间有显著影响.

This paper introduces the survival analysis into the traffic incident mechanism. A survival analysis based Modeling of traffic incident duration for urban expressways is presented. Based on the observed traffic incident data of viaduct expressways in Shanghai, China, this model first analyzes the feature attributes of many traffic incident samples, and employs nonparametric regression based on Kaplan-Meyer model to estimate hazard-based traffic incident duration. Then, the key impact factors of traffic incident are classified into five types and the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of traffic incident duration time are analyzed. Finally, linear Cox regression is used to comprehensively evaluate multidimensional influencing factors of traffic incident duration. The key characteristic parameters of expressway incident management in Shanghai are optimized to analyze the evolution mechanism of incident duration. The result shows that, for different type of influencing factors, the spatial-time distribution of traffic incident duration in Shanghai expressway has significant difference, and nine factors as day and night,incident type, related vehicle number, related lane number, location, bottleneck and trailer significantly affect the incident duration.