中国热钱月度流动规模测算研究

Research on the Monthly Flow Scale of Hot Money in China

文章使用"热钱流动的规模=调整后的外汇储备增加额-贸易顺差-外商直接投资(FDI)增加额-外债增加额+贸易顺差中隐藏的热钱+FDI中隐藏的热钱+外资企业的短期外债增加额+通过非法渠道流入的热钱规模"的计算方法,结合分布滞后模型,对1999年至2013年9月期间热钱的月度流动规模进行了估算。

This analysis estimated the flow scale of hot money from January 1999 to September 2013. The formula applied is＂the flow scale of hot money = the increases of reserves after adjustment-the trade surplus-the increases of Foreign Direct Investment（FDI）-the foreign debt increases ＋ the hidden hot money of the trade surplus ＋ the hidden hot money of the FDI ＋ the increases of the short-term debt on foreign-funded enterprises ＋ the flow scale of hot money through illegal channels＂. The distributed lag model is also adopted in the estimation.