基于语言信息的动态项目风险评价方法

Method for dynamic risk evaluation based on language information

针对仅能提供专家语言信息输入的项目风险评价,提出风险现值和风险趋势的概念,处理时间维度下的不确定性所造成的项目动态风险问题。在项目风险评价中引入时间变量,综合考虑风险因素的分布情况,实现了基于时间变量的项目动态风险因素排序及风险趋势评价。最后用实例证明了动态项目风险评价方法的科学有效性以及评价结果的合理性。

For input information of proj ect risk assessment is only limited to expert language information, the concepts of risk present value and risk trends are proposed to process the dynamic risk issue caused by uncer-tainty according to the time dimension.Time variable is introduced into project risk assessment,considering risk event expected time of occurrence,duration,and distribution.Dynamic risk ranking and risk trends are ration-ally assessed based on the time variable.Finally,the effectiveness of the method and the rationality of the evalu-ation result are proved by a practical example.