中国制造业能源消费差异及高能耗对行业发展的影响

Energy Consumption Difference of Manufacturing Industry and Impacts of High Energy Consumption on Industry Development in China

基于2005—2011年中国制造业各行业面板数据,实证分析了中国制造业内部能源消费水平及其边际消费的差异性,找寻出能耗较高且需求较为旺盛的5个行业,并实证分析了此5行业能耗增长对其发展的冲击效应,得出如下结论:1)石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业以及有色金属冶炼及压延加工业等5大行业不但表现出较高的能源消费水平,且其边际消费倾向也有着异常高的表现;2)对高耗能、能源需求旺盛的5大行业其能源消费量与其工业总产值的VAR模型分析表明,能源消费的高增长在短期内对行业发展有所贡献,但从长期的趋势来看,其对行业发展的促进作用有限,此种发展模式不利于行业未来的转型升级。为此,必须采取科学合理的政策措施和市场干预,努力实现最大程度的节能降耗,竭力避免高能耗成为行业发展中的约束条件。

Based on industry panel data during 2005 and 2011,an empirical analysis of energy consumption level and marginal consumption differences of Chinese manufacturing industry is done and finds out the 5 industries with high energy consumption and needs.Further,the impacts of high energy consumption on industry development in China are studied,coming to conclusions as follows：1） The 5industries,including petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing,manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products,manufacture of non-metallic mineral products,smelting and pressing of ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals,all demonstrate a high level of energy consumption and exceptionally high marginal energy consumption;2） VAR analysis indicates that high energy consumption may contribute to China＇ s industry development in the short term,but its role of promoting industry development is limited in the long run.Rational policy of market intervention must be implemented to achieve maximum energy saving and consumption reducing.