基于专利分析概念模型的中国机器人技术发展预测

Technology Prediction of China's Robot Development Based on Conceptual Model of Patent Analysis

基于专利分析的概念模型,从技术发展方向、技术发展水平和技术发展潜力三个方面对中国机器人技术发展进行预测,以验证模型的应用性。预测结果表明:中国机器人整体技术处于成长期,但主要的子技术还存在明显差异:其中机械手子技术已位于成长期的中后期阶段,转向机构子技术则位于成长期的前期阶段,非电变量的控制或调节系统技术以及一般的控制或调节系统则刚进入成长期。因此,企业、高校以及科研院所应积极抓住机器人技术发展的大好时机,开展联合攻关,实现机器人关键技术的重大突破,促进产业转型与升级,提升先进制造业的产业技术竞争力。

Technology prediction of China＇s robot development is completed based on the conceptual model of patent analysis from 3 as-pects of development direction, development level and development potential of technology, which shows that the outcomes based on 3 different methods are almost the same and the effectiveness of the conceptual model is proved. The final conclusion is as follows. The o-verall technology development of robot is at the stage of growth, but there is an evident difference of development stages among the main sub-technologies： the technology of Mechanical Hand Tools is at the mid-latter stage of growth;the technology of Vehicle Parts is at the former stage of growth;the technology of Process and Machine Control is just at the beginning stage of growth as well as the technology of Digital Computers Control. Enterprises should catch such a good opportunity of robot technology development with efforts together with universities and research institutions, realizing the breakthrough of the key technologies and promoting the economic development and im-provement of social lives.