西南喀斯特地区农业旱灾脆弱性演化分析——以贵州省为例

Evolution analysis on agricultural drought vulnerability in Karst areas in Southwestern China——An example from Guizhou province

农业旱灾脆弱性刻画了农业系统应对旱灾过程中致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承载体易损性的叠加效应,从系统的角度揭示了农业干旱灾害的生成机制和受灾程度。构建了贵州农业旱灾脆弱性指标体系,结合贵州农业旱灾的时序特征,运用时序因子分析成功提取了致灾因子、孕灾环境和承载体3个公共因子,并对贵州农业旱灾脆弱性演化趋势(2006—2012年)进行实证分析,所得结论与贵州农业旱灾的实际情况高度吻合。

Agricultural drought vulnerability characterizes the additive effect of disasters-causing factors, hazard inducing environment sensitivity and hazard bearing body vulnerability, which reveals the agricultural drought formation mechanism and the strength of drought. This article constructs an index system of agricultural drought vulnerability in Guizhou and combines time series data with factor analysis, then the empirical analysis of evolution trend on agricultural drought vulnerability during 2006-2012 in Guizhou is given. Research conclusion have high superposition with the actual agricultural drought situation.