锦州市2015年二氧化硫新增量预测

Predicting the New Increment of Sulfur Dioxide of Jinzhou City in 2015

根据《"十二五"主要污染物总量控制规划编制技术指南》提供的公式,预测社会经济发展主要参数,包括GDP、能源消费总量、煤炭消费量等指标。二氧化硫新增量预测以宏观测算方法为主,并按行业测算方法予以校核。宏观测算分为火电行业和非电力行业,结果为1.419万t;分行业预测分为石化、建材(水泥)、有色、冶金和其他行业,结果为1.774万t,两者预测偏差为25%,采用分行业预测结果作为2015年二氧化硫新增量预测。

According to the formula supplied by Technical Guide of Controlling the Total Amount of Major Populants in the 12th Five-year Plan, forcasted the main parameters of the social development, including GDP, tatal energy consumed, coal consumption, etc. Macro-method should be applied to measure the new increment of sulfur dioxide, the results should be checked according to the measurement methods in different industries. Macro-forecast can be divided into thermal power industry and non-electrinic power industry, the result is 14 190 t. Forecasting by industries can be devided into petrifaction, building materials （ cement） , non-ferrous matals, metallurgy and so on, the result is 17 740 t. The deviation between them is 25%. The result of forecasting by industries was taken as the new increment of sulfur dioxide in 2015.