湖北省城镇化与服务业发展关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and Service Industry in Hubei Province

为了有效分析城镇化与服务业之间的互动关系,文中选取1978-2013年城镇化率、人均服务业增加值的相关时间序列数据,运用ADF检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析和方差分解,探究湖北省城镇化与服务业发展之间的关系。通过实证研究发现,湖北省城镇化与人均服务业增加值间存在长期的均衡关系。短期城镇化水平的变化引起人均服务业增加值相同方向的变化,但小于长期的影响。湖北省城镇化对服务业产生了有效的带动作用,而服务业对城镇化的促进作用还有待进一步提高。

To analyze the interaction of urbanization and service industry, this paper selected the time-series data of the urbanization rate and the per capita value-added of the service industry from 1978 to 2013,explored the relationship between urbanization and service industry in Hubei Province by adopting ADF test,cointegration test, error correction model,VAR model,inpulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The study found that the long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship exists between urbanization level and the per capita value-added of the service industry in Hubei Province.The short-term changes of urbanization level are in the same direction with the per capita value-added of the service industry, less than the long-term effects. Urbanization effectively promoted the development of the service industry in Hubei Province, while the promotion effect of service industry on urbanization needs further improvement.