财政收支、银行信贷与十堰经济增长

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure,Bank Credit and Economic Growth in Shiyan

财政支出对GDP产生显著的促进作用,但贷款、特别是中长期贷款对GDP潜在的影响更大。财政支出已经对第一产业的发展产生了促进作用,是解释第一产业变动的主要因素,银行信贷尽管对第一产业的实际影响非常小,但潜力很大。第二产业的发展似乎更遵循自身的行业发展周期性波动规律,财政支出、银行信贷对第二产业的影响更多地表现为一次性的影响。财政支出、银行信贷对第三产业的促进作用都很小,但相对而言银行信贷对第三产业的促进作用要更大一些。财政支出对城镇居民的收入有较大促进作用,而对农村居民的作用非常有限;银行信贷对城镇居民、农村居民的收入增长都有显著的促进作用,其潜在的促进作用有待进一步发挥。根据实证结果,本文提出要积极争取中央转移支付,增加商业银行对本区域的信贷特别是中长期贷款的投放;增加财政支出对第三产业的支持力度,引导银行信贷增加对第一、第三产业的支持;引导银行信贷向居民倾斜。

After inspecting the relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure, bank credit, and economic growth through 2002-2013, the followings are found：1. Fiscal expenditure had significant positive effect on GDP, but the loan, especially medi-um and long-term loan has bigger potential effect on GDP;2. Fiscal expenditure has benefitted the first industry, although the effect is weak, it has become the main factors to explain the development of the first industry. Bank credit has small but big potential effect on the first industry. Although the fiscal expenditure, bank credit can affect the second industry, but the development of the second industry seems to follow its own law. The effect of the bank credit and fiscal expenditure on the second industry is temporal. Bank credit and fiscal expenditure have small effect on the third industry, but the effect of bank credit is larger than that of fiscal ex-penditure;3. Fiscal expenditure has significant effect on the income of urban residents but weak effect on rural residents. Bank credit has a significant role in promoting the income of both urban residents and rural residents, but its potential effect needs to be li-brated. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward：1. Central fiscal transfer should be strived for, and local bank credit especially medium and long-term loans should be increased;2. fiscal expenditure should be increased to support the third industry, bank credit should be steered to support the first and the third industry;3. Bank credit should be steered to residents.