用逐步二级分辨数学模型预测农业害虫种群动态

Forecasting Population Dynamics of Crop Pest by Mathematical Models of Progressively Two-grade Discriminatory

文章应用基本Ｆｉｓｈｅｒ准则下逐步二级分辨原理，对山东省临沂市１９６５～１９８６年（１９８０年除外）共２１年的第二代玉米螟虫株率的历史观测数据进行了数量分析，建立了３个逐步二级分辨数学模型。经对历史资料的回报验证，其历史符合率分别为９５．２４％、９２．３１％、１００％。将１９８７年、１９８８年观测数据作为独立样本进行试报，其预报结果与实际一致。

ccording to principle of progressively two-grade discriminatory by Fisher rule,the authors analyse the data about the occurrence of the second generation of the corn borer in 21 years of 1965～1986(except 1980)at Linyi,Shandong Province,and then deduce three mathematical models of progressively two-grade discriminatory.The results tested through the past data show that the fitting rate is 95.24%,92.31% and 100%. Based on the sample data from 1987 to 1988,the results forecast are true of the facts.