中国主要城市地价重心迁移及驱动因素研究

Research on Land Price Gravity Movement and Its Driving Factors of Major Cities in China

城市地价直接影响着城市的房地产市场和城市土地开发利用,从而影响城市的经济社会发展,及时掌握城市地价的发展规律,根据城市地价及时调整制定相关政策,是政府对土地市场进行调控的关键。利用重心模型,在测算和分析2000-2012年49个主要城市的综合地价重心位置及其变化规律的基础上,探讨了驱动中国城市地价重心迁移的因素。结果显示,中国主要城市地价重心始终位于区域几何中心的东南方向,但东西方向上的差异逐渐缩小,南北方向上的差异则逐渐扩大,地价重心迁移轨迹可以分为3个阶段和1个突变年。城市规模、经济发展水平、基础设施和城市区位等因素驱动着城市地价重心的迁移。

Urban land price directly affects the city′s real estate market and land development,thereby influencing the urban economic and social development.Therefore,the key points for the governments to regulate the land market are to learn urban land price change pattern,and adjust the relevant policies accordingly.By using gravity center model,here we discussed the driving factors of urban land price gravity movement,based on the calculation and analysis of the movement pattern of the integrative land price gravity of 49 major cities in China from 2000 to 2012.The results showed that the land price gravity center always located in the southeast of regional geometric center,and the gap across the north-south gradient was shrinking,but the gap across the east-west gradient expanded.The movement of land price gravity could be summarized as three phases and an abrupt change year.Urban size,economic development level,infrastructure and urban location drove the movement of urban land price gravity.