基于能源安全的辽宁省煤炭资源流动研究

Coal Resource Flow of Liaoning Province Based on Energy Security

从流量、流向及资源合作三方面探讨辽宁省煤炭资源流动特征,并对未来5年煤炭输入量进行预测,结果表明:1)辽宁省能源产消失衡,对外依存度逐渐上升,与外省煤炭资源交流更为频繁。2)辽宁煤炭资源交流主要集中在其周边地区,内蒙古是最大的煤炭供应源,承担着未来辽宁能源安全的重任。3)由ARIMA模型预测结果可知,未来5年辽宁省煤炭资源输入量将呈现稳定增长趋势。建议采取多种模式,加强政策指引,完善与优化蒙辽煤运通道,促进蒙辽煤炭资源开发合作。

This paper from both quantity of flow,flow directions and flow corridors,evaluated and discussed the balance status of coal resources flow and problems in Liaoning Province of China.The paper next made a prediction of importing coal for the next 5years,and based on projected results,it put forward some policy suggestions.The study reveals that：1）Energy production and consumption in Liaoning is imbalanced,and the external dependence degree has been rising year by year.Therefore,it requires a lot of coal from other provinces to make up its shortage.2）Inner Mongolia is Liaoning′s largest coal supplier,and it will bear the energy security burden of Liaoning in the future.Coal supply amounts of Beijing,Hebei,Henan and Ningxia is very small,which has little effect to pattern changes of coal source regions.Coal supply amounts of Jilin,Heilongjiang and Shanxi tend to be stable,but the growth momentum is weak.The number of provinces that coals from Liaoning flowing to is relatively small as well as the quantity of flow.All in all,coal resource flow is mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas of Liaoning,which reveals the proximity of coal resource flow and distance-decay regularity.3）Coal resource in eastern area of Inner Mongolia is the cornerstone of the energy supply of Liaoning,and coal resource in Jilin can be used as emergency source.Outward transport corridor and node construction of East Inner Mongolia is favorable to Liaoning that more easily gets access to its coal resource.4）According to the projected results of importing coal from external area in the next 5years,this paper presents that Liaoning can improve coal transport capacity of railway in the short term to solve the energy bottleneck.5）Taking a variety of methods,enhancing policy guidance,perfecting and optimizing coal transportation corridors of Inner Mongolia-Liaoning to promote coal resource development cooperation of Inner Mongolia-Liaoning.