北京居民出行行为分析:时间价值和交通需求弹性估算

Travel Behavior Analysis for the Residents in Beijing: Value of Time and Travel Demand Elasticity Estimates

基于2010年北京市居民工作出行调研数据和随机参数Logit模型,从微观层面实证分析了影响北京市居民选择出行方式的个人/家庭、交通通达度以及出行(方式)的相关特征等各类因素,并在此基础上着重研究了出行方式的时间价值、时间弹性和价格弹性,为交通政策的评估与建议提供实证资料。实证分析发现,人们对公交、地铁的车内时间价值表现出较高的敏感度,因此节约公交出行时间的交通政策(如建设快速公交、增加地铁的线路和班次等)可能会更有效地调节人们选择公交出行的方式。同时也发现降低公交/地铁的价格可能不足以有效吸引北京开车出行人群转用公交。发展快速公交可能比"低价公交"政策能更有效地吸引人们转用公交地铁等交通工具。

Beijing has been one of the most congested cities in the world. Both the extensive economic costs of this congestion and the links between the increase in vehicle traffic, congestion and pollution have been well-documented. Thus local government adopted a battery of policy instruments to reduce these problems. This paper is to use large sample of survey data and more advanced modeling struCture （random parameter logit model） to provide empirical evidence to evaluate these policies and to provide relevant policy suggestions. This empirical study found that： 1） The value of time for the travelers in Beijing was higher than the findings in the empirical studies of some other countries, which indicated that people in this city were more sensitive to the change of travel time. Therefore, we could image that the policies to reduce travel time such as Bus Rapid Transit （BRT） could be effective to promote ridership of public transit and reduce traffic congestion; 2） As direct elasticities for bus and subway were very. small, which meant that people barely responded to the ticket price change, it would be ineffective to attract more passengers or push passengers away by reducing or increasing transit ticket prices. And the policies to raise the ticket prices could in turn alleviate financial pressure of the subsidies provided to the public transit system; 3） the empirical evidence supports the policies to increase the cost of driving vehicles, such as congestion price, emission price, or parking fees, etc. Through these policies, the travelers who drive or use private automobiles would pay for externalities induced by their travel actions. And these policies could be effective to reduce traffic volume on the road as well as the pollutants in the air.